Malicious Prophets and Bear in Sheeps Clothes

It is intriguing to see what people will do to make money or gain power. One cadre include the malicious prophets and naysayers, the conspiracy theory extrememists, out with vendetta and greed. Their modus operandi is a via negativa.

Such individuals will lucubrate in order to promote narrow personal gain, at the expense of the common good. They will precipitate foul vituperation and kick you while you are down. This includes the nascent report of Michael Mayo, through the report of Michael Moore on Bloomberg.

Mayo was right on in his 1999 bear call, to the loss of his job. However, now he wishes to extenuate his handsome returns after the massive slash in bank equities. There is one thing to portend a problem, have it come true, and be ordained king, there's another thing to allow it to get to your head, and perceive oneself as a perma-prophet. If Mayo is going to make such doomsday calls on the banks, he needs to demonstrate how this will take effect in real analysis, and show how it will mount upon the already enormous equity losses of the financials and write downs.

There was a promblem. The markets crashed horribly. And now some want to feed on the fear of others, at the expense of the systemic health of the country by beating up bank stocks even more. Michael Moore seems to enjoy this course, as can be seen in his documentaries; much like a bully enjoys beating up the vulnerable.

To Infinity and Beyond!

I think in the end no one really knows whats going to happen with the markets, but one thing is for certain: taxes will always go up, inflation will always go up, commodity prices and services costs will always go up, and earnings will go up with well managed companies. The trend is always going to be up imo, but not necessarily because of virtue, rather because of the aforementioned negative reasons. That's why I agree with Buffett's last letter, esp., now that cash is going to be a sour loser. Over time betting on the market upwards propensity is the winner, the shorts had a singular massive win recently, now they are due, and already received a corrective comeuppance.

Universal Healthcare? I'm Outta Here.

As a small business owner, myself, and seeing the proclivities toward socialism, particularly the leanings toward universal health-care, if such things come about in the U.S., then I'm moving to a different country.

Who in their right mind wants to pay %50 of their income toward taxes, and not get much, if anything for it. I guess if you are paying health care insurance premiums that our out of sight, and have multiple health care problems and financial problems, this sounds great! But for those who don't, who take care of their bodies, who work hard for their money, this sounds horrible.

Such political implementations will drive the talent, the healthy, the employers, the very heart of the economic engine, unquestionably away, leaving the welfare crowd to depend on themselves, devolving as a nation of decrepit, broke lepers.

Moreover, granting further employee entitlements, extending unemployment benefits and welfare, increasing the tax burden on small business owners, translates, practically, into a national unionization, crippling small businesses, and causing them to shed more jobs to stay viable, simultaneously capitulating even more, the employee payroll, making living wages impossible.

The Last Leg to Be Lopped-- Bank Bondholders

With shareholders and taxpayers taking the brunt of the financial debacle, as the primary scapegoat for the crisis, the last leg they say to be punished is the bank bondholders, who are feasting on their 8% returns.

It's the top headline now on bloomberg. If I'm not mistaken, a bond holder has time commitments, thus, to cash out would be to take a significant hair cut, correct? The spreads on the bond yields are significantly high, about 8%, and it seems equitable that they do receive a trim. As for the ramifications of that, I'm not sure if it would be all that devastating, because they are getting all the cake right now, it would be to take away part of that big cake; it seems many would remain bondholders, simply because of the nature of such investors. Though, I did underestimate the severity of the collapse post DOW 8500. If the hair cut happens, then I think I will be on my toes, watching the vix. Yet, even still, it seems inappropriate to think bank stocks, after being cut in half and more, are not worth half of what they use to be. Thus, while the financials are being dismembered and this seems to be the last leg to be lopped, the trunk and the brain is worth more than the arms and the legs.

Day Trading Equals Gambling.

People are wondering whether or not buy and hold is dead. Many people are becoming day traders, and a small percentage of those are actually making some money in these markets because of the swings.

However, day trading is gambling in my opinion, and subject to huge tax burdens of 35%. Let's simulate the day trader.

I have $10,000 I invest in an issue. The value goes up %10 in a month. I sell, and make $1,000. After taxes I make only two thirds of that, namely, $666. Here's the problem. I just gave up $333, and let us say the stock keeps going up. I miss out on the further upside, and I paid %20 more in taxes, rather than waiting a year to sell. Let's say the issue declines in value after the upside. It would have to decline by one third to make up for the tax loss. The odds of micro-timing the market are horrible. Thus, everything is out of favor for the day trader and it is the equivalent of gambling.

Buy and hold is wise. There are times when selling is also wise, even with tax losses, but this needs to be based on fundamentals.

The Bottom is In!

Want to hear my bull case? Though markets this quarter have decreased the most since the great depression, and sunk past ten year lows, our earnings haven't sunk to those levels, nor rates. The last few months are going to be seen as a hiatus of depression in recession. Earnings are going to be disclosed much higher in 1st quarter than thought, and 2nd quarter particularly. The fear is subsiding quickly, which is the salient factor in the capitulation. Consumers are spending again, and saving. Many things are pointing toward confidence. This is a great bottom to put in on the books, and a great opportunity.

Angels in the outfield.

This economic pearl harbor, has caught many people off guard, and now as we are picking up the pieces and dressing our wounds, we are asking ourselves, what could be more dire, and is there anything that will bring us out of this mess. Psychologists say that though negative comments, and scolding vituperations have their effects, positivity has stronger effects, particularly when contrasted with negativity. The truth of the matter is, when a positive voice emerges from the drowning swoon of depressing noise, and the voice strikes true there is nothing more powerful. It is from the clarion calls of such angels we will be rallied to heights.

Mind-Brain Dilemma, The Death of the Soul

It's interesting how most people now-a-days are rather atheistic in manner. Look at how religion has become a kind of tombstone. If a poll was done, how many people would believe that there is an element of the human person, that survives death, and goes to another place? When we look at an animal, when it dies, we don't believe it has a soul which survives death, we know that is the end of that animal.

The question in neuroscience has become not so much whether there is a soul that is immaterial in the mind-brain dilemma, but rather, how can we physically explain all the workings of the "mind", including consciousness, and will power?

There have been some rather jumbled and staggering attempts to solve the problem, using exotic terms like qualia, and dynamic core theory. But perhaps it is rather a simple answer, along the lines of the aggregate idea--that the entire collection of neurons in the brain bring about these faculties, through their individual function and collectiveness. It's even easier than this though, isn't it, especially if we define consciousness in a simple manner say, as a sensing of sensing. We sense that we are sensing. A part or parts of the brain simply recognizes that another part is operating or sensing something. This gives rise to the idea of a inner ego, or what has been come to be known as the soul, the Cartesian dualism.

Now, could we ask another question that goes one step further, if the "soul" can be explained physically, then could there still be something which survives death, even still. Anything is possible, right? We are here with such incredible complexity, why couldn't this be also possible.